Vardah Cyclone

Vardah Exclusive Details-

Hrishi's experience-

"I feel really sad for his absence for the past 2 days. Just now he says power restored. Really a fury in South Chennai areas.."Actually i love Cyclones and extremely Heavy Rainfall...But this is Worst than 1st December Downpour...My area Palavakkam was kept under a rain Carnage from 1pm to 3pm and my AWS recorded a massive Total of 284mm in just 3 hours spell. Even near my College its flooding. By evening, the situation beacme Worsen and really i was totally upset. Power gone and my mobile Charge drained. Don't know what to do, full area under dark. Even the Mobile net connection was lost. I never imagined such a damage that too to Chennai", he added.

Sai Krishna's Experience-

Me too a team mate of WOS. All started with a drizzle in Morning at Chepauk. Suddenly there was a heavy rain towards afternoon. Gusts slowly grabbed speed around 11.45 am and peaked near 1 pm. Cant able to see the other side of Building indeed. The winds were Gusting around 125 km/h in my area and it was a dream run of winds. I cant say in my words, such a deluge making up to 197mm in just 2 hours. Since we are near to Sea, we had a direct pose of winds and its like a terrifying gust. The howling sound is something which is scary. Thanks to the government At last they declared holiday for 3 days. I was about tell you all, Never under estimate the power of Cyclone". 

Sanjana Kumar Experience-

"Actually i was unaware of this Cyclone. Started my day as a Normal day. Never Experience a Cyclone Till date in My life. I am from Irunjalakuda, Kerala. Now Working in Hyundai company and a good friend of Sai, the admin. That day started as a normal day, the clock was ticking 11.00am, i was typing computer and furnishing some details. Suddenly my colleagues told me the news on Cyclone. I opened the Windyty app and saw the wind. It was actually a big monster i saw for the first time in Map. Around 1.00pm, i texted Sai but he didn't respond my message. I said him, "Sai sir came" and went to work. Sudeenly around 3.30pm, a big gust rolled through. I was shocked to see such a big gust. Super winds and a Cat 2 feel. Infact my heart was beating like anything. First time in my life. That hauling sound, unforgettable. Infact Tropical cyclone is unimaginable and unpredictable, mainly in our countryside. It was 7 pm, i came out of office. No power around the place. Really i was a bit feared. No internet connection and No contact with parents. Really horrible. Don't know how to manage things. Finally it was 3 days aftermath, i got network and power access back. First time in my life, facing a difficulty itself an experience".

Photo by Sanjana-Hyundai-

Picture by Hrishi-Jeppiar Engineering College-

Massive rains round the eye wall, straight over Sanjana's office, Vardah-

Some maps by Nasa-

Rain rate measurement round the eye wall of Vardah-

Total Rainfall of Vardah (TRMM)-

Coming to the Actual Winds and Quantum-

Chennai city recorded a Maximum wind speed of 138.4 kph when Severe Cyclone Vardah Struck. As per the Radar, if we see north chennai got more Winds whereas the Parts of south chennai got Winds and Rains. Heavy rains seen close to Tambaram, Kelambakkam. Pallavaram, Sriperambudur, Palavakkam, Shollinganallur, Tiruvallur, Kanchipuam stretch. The rainfall totals exceeded about 30 cms in these areas totally from Vardah.

On the Other hand, North Chennai got the Less rainfall. Ponneri, Perambur, Ambattur, Tondiarpet, Royapuram got considerable less rainfall, DGP office (below 15cms).

(Data by Pradeep)

How much loss estimated till now?

News channels telling a loss nearing 6749 crores to Tamilnadu and about 586 crores to Andhra Pradesh. There were several Videos of Lifting cars, Bus, even a big Building published by Hindu news-facebook (Have a look). The more loss is incurred along Northern Suburbs. One reason i want to Mention is the Unplanned constructions here and there in the city, without proper attestation of authorities concerned. Our city is planned to handle a rainfall up to 15cms and not a 49cms deluge (1st december, 2015-Tambaram) and its made to handle a wind speed around 50 kmph but not a 120 kmph storm. The additional unwanted and unplanned constructions add up into loss. The Society need to see the future losses, instead of building beautiful and extra-ordinary constructions. What for building a 100 storied building and getting washed by a storm??..Haha tell me..its waste...'ok' if its 120 kmph cyclone. What will happen if some Cat-5 cyclone with 250 kmph strucks ???....who will pay the loss?? Can the insurance give?

Structural engineers need to investigate about the Material stability to with stand high tension winds and Gusts. There must be a compensation to the coast which we pay. Need to improve this area to reduce losses.
"Its in our hands to lay future for our futuristic country...Lots of young blood in India. Come out and re build the unplanned"

Lines of Civil Engineer-

Pon Karthikeyan (Civil student, in my college)-
"Reinforcement of Cement structures needs a proper ratio of Sand, Water, Cement and Lim...they should be mixed in a proper ratio as per the Civil guidelines. But some illegal workers, reduce the amount of ratio and build flyovers and bridges...if cyclone comes, can it handle?"
"Aim- To improve strength of the material...(Futuristic goal)" He adds.

Coonoor

Why Coonoor Gets Heaviest Rainfall during North-east Monsoon

Generally during North-east Monsoon or  Summer Season, when a Low pressure system tracks along Lakshadweep sea, Places along Kerala coast get Rainfall, which lies between 40-100mm QPF. But the places in the Nilgiri District of Tamilnadu, particularly Coonoor-Kothagiri-Ketti Belt gets Heavy rainfall of around 100-120 mm QPF. 

One extra-ordinary rainfall, 

Orography of Nilgiris-

When during South west monsoon, Coonoor belt is subjected to mild rainfall, where as the other stations like gudalur, portimund Avalanche is subjected to heavy rainfall. During the North east Monsoon, the winds are from east and the Western parts like gudalur, avalanche become dry. But it is noted a heavy rainfall along Coonoor belt. When Synoptic system moves close Kerala coast, Coonoor-Kothagiri belt witness heavy rainfall. Even if we take 2009 as example, a Depression became well marked close to Kerala coast and Nilgiri witnessed extremely heavy rains. One of the heaviest rains in Tamilnadu state, Ketti with 820mm in 24 hours.

Upcoming Tropical update-01

Depression to develop over Central Bay of Bengal Soon

Areas Likely to get affected-

1. Odisha

2. North Andhra Coast

3. Coastal Burma

4.West Bengal

But the system is likely to Make landfall as a Low pressure close to Odisha Coast. The prevail Shear conditions, not allowing the System for a rapid intensification to a Tropical Cyclone.

North east Monsoon

North East Monsoon Forecasts-

North-east Monsoon is the crucial Monsoon for South-Peninsular India. Mainly, the places of South Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu gets about 40-60% of their annual rainfall from North-east Monsoon. First the season start with interiors getting good rains around Afternoon, Evening, Early part of Night. During the transition period, the Mild westerlies prevail and the Moisture available over the interior Peninsula will be good with a good amounts of Vorticity and CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy), it will help in Thunderstorm formation.

Terms-

Vorticity-Raising mass of air and it will lead to Convergence.

CAPE-It tells us the amount of energy present in the atmosphere which helps in cloud formation. Its measured in Joules/kg.

OUR NEM FORECASTS-

ENSO-

IOD-

BAY OF BENGAL SST'S-

The prevailing conditions Show a Normal Monsoon with less consistent flood alert and it will be a Normal Monsoon 2016. There will be 2-3 disturbances to South Andhra coast this year but The North-east Monsoon will be good in Heavy weights from Sirikazhi-Vedaranyam stretch.

Pre monsoon rains

Rainy days Ahead for Odisha and East India-

The South-west Monsoon season has almost come to an end, with some activity now persisting over Odisha and parts of North Coastal Andhra. The rains will continue till the first half of next week  and Likely to reduce from there on.

The interior Thunderstorm season of Tamilnadu will get a good boost with heavy rains from next week Monday and lasting till the onset of North-east Monsoon.

Depression likely to form over North Bay of Bengal-

The latest charts pointing a depression to form over North Bay of Bengal and it will drift towards Bangladesh coast by 13th and weaken thereby. It will hold westerlies till 15th and from 16th, the easterlies will pick pace over the Bay of Bengal. This will there by get strengthen on 18th and the Onset of North-east Monsoon will be declared.

Tamilnadu upcoming

Thunderstorm season to Start over Interior Tamilnadu:

The Rainfall season Likely to begin over interior Tamilnadu and Parts of South Interior Karnataka. But only thing is that the presence of Systems above the Latitude of Tamilnadu making the relative subsidence and inhibiting the formation of Thunderstorms. The North-east Monsoon, which is scheduled to arrive around 18th of October, likely to create some sort of Instability along with the easterlies blowing along the surface levels of Tamilnadu Coast.

The Main dates for interior Thunderstorms will be around 10th-15th October. Districts of Salem, Coimbatore, Tiruppur, Erode, Dharmapuri, Tiruvannamalai, Tiruchi, Madurai may witness widespread Thunderstorm activity during that dates and the Inter-tropical Convergence zone may leave India by October 8th and hence the Easterlies will get strengthen along the east coast of India.

North East Monsoon

North East Monsoon Onset Date-

The Much awaiting North east Monsoon likely to start by 17/18th of October. The easterlies may give moderate rains by 20th October. The Monsoon expected to Remain Normal over the places of South Peninsular India.

Our Earlier Forecast--

Bay of Bengal-October

A Tropical Development Likely over North Bay of Bengal soon

West Bengal and Odisha to get ready for a system-

As per the available data, a system might move towards the Bengal/North Odisha Coast as a windy and rainy blob. It may cause some sort of damage to the coastal areas.

Gujarat and Marathwada to brace for rainy Days-

A low pressure area over North-Karnataka and Vidarbha persists. It would travel North-West and affect Gujarat coast in next 48 hours.

                         

BY

SAI PRANEETH, WOS TEAM

POWER GENERATION ANALYSIS

POWER SYSTEM OPERATION BY MONSOON-

We have a wide Range of Power systems in our country and vast research is going on regarding a power network stability, since its being exposed to Atmospheric conditions and parameters like Temperature, Humidity, Rainfall influence the Generation, Transmission of the useful Power along different parts of Country. Since we are Monsoon based country, we have vast resources of Water storage and heavy quantum of energy being taken from Water Source.

OUR ANALYSIS-

During the operation of Power system, we have various disturbances caused by the wind and ice Loading. If we take Jammu and Kashmir, the area is covered with snow almost 4-5 months in an year, which leads to the gathering of snow over Transmission lines. It can be effectively reduced by using Underground Cables than using Overhead Cables.

In South India, there are places which gets affected by Cyclones and severe weather events. The protection and operation of Power system depends on-

1.Rainfall constaint-(Operation)

2.Wind Velocity-(Protection)

3.Temperature-(Resistance of Transmission line)

4.Local Meso-Scale disturbances-(Localized Power flow affected)

Measures Should be taken in-order to Curb the effect of the atmospheric conditions, in-order to improve our Power systems and we are currently working in a project on to reduce the transmission line losses by Atmosphere.

                                                                                                          BY Sai Praneeth, WOS Team

Monsoon Rainfall 2016

INDIAN MONSOON PERFORMANCE OVER SOUTH INDIA

Kerala-Deficient

Karnataka-Below Normal

Andhra Pradesh-Above Normal

Tamilnadu-Normal

Telangana-Excess

Note-

The Low pressure which formed 5 days back brought heavy Rainfall along Telangana and North Andhra. Even places like Chennai, Pondicherry Got good Thunderstorms due to that synoptic impact. Now its lying close to Vidarbha and Adjoing areas of Marathawada. Its likely to Bring Heavy Rains along North-interior Karnataka and Some parts Telangana and Vidarbha.

Rainfall So far This year

Clouds and their details

How a cloud is Generated???
In tropics, heat is available to a large extent and the weather is quite humid to produce thunderstorms. When sometimes, the Surface gets saturated with humid air i.e between 0 to 2.5kms from sea level, the moisture and RH will be high....When this is couple by heat, the water vapor is transferred in the form of packets to the mid layers i.e between 3.0 to 8.5kms, by a process where heat is not supplied through out its journey.
During its transition from ground to mid levels, the Moist air cools down at a rate of -10degrees/km of ascent...While the atmospheric normal lapse rate is -6degrees/km of ascent.....
Now imagine a cup of cool water is kept in a warm room....Water droplets appear around the glass....When the packet is cooled off, the packet gets saturated and is made visible to our naked eye...Its called the cloud. The cloud forms at the mean layer 850mb or 850hPa and its called Boundary layer. The Clouds initially Extends a bit high and tough the liquid Condensation level (LCL)...Its called "Cumulus"....When there is further raising of packets, the cloud towers up....its called cumulus congestus....
When the process still continues, the cloud gets spread in diameter and mass....its called Cumulonimbus....The front part of this clouds develops and the back part of the cloud dissipates and its called down burst...It naturally occurs by aiding factors like
1)Sea Breeze front
2)Rocked Terrain- Arcot, Vellore, Sholinghur
3)Plain area, where free convection happens--Tiruttani, Arakkonam.
4)Hilly areas, where air is made forced to raise up---Jawadhu, Tirumala, Kolli hills...

Article By-me

kerala rains

Weak South-West Monsoon making the South-Indian landmass dry up-

South-West Monsoon, which has been a prime weather pattern all over the India for rainfall has drastically reduce due to lack of Moisture influx and a proper mechanism to drive the monsoon. Kerala, which gets the major part of the monsoon of india, has dried up drastically due to poor rains in july and August. The rainfall reduced due to lack of low pressure systems originating from low latitudes and this made the major deficit of rainfall across south india.

There was a very deficit rainfall along the places of west coast and Gujarath, which majorly seeks the monsoonal rainfall anually.

Rain Pounds Tirupathi on 29th july 2016-
                          

The offshore trough-

                          

A trough which results in along the west coast due to the Thermal low along the Rajasthan is called an offshore trough. It lies around 25-50kms from coast and during night times, it settles inland and cause intense rainfall along the ghats of the south indian landmass. Western ghats crucial rainfall is based on the off-shore trough over the region. The off shore trough dips the westerly wind component and results in the formation of convergence along its periphery. 

                             

The area of convergence lies to the westerly portion of the trough and the area of divergence lies to the easterly portion of the trough if the wind comes along westerly. This pattern is seen along the off shore trough. The offshore trough will cause heating of land during the day and the relatively clouging effect along the coast during night.

Kerala Rains missing for long??

The kerala rains depends on the Mid-level systems arising in Bay of Bengal. If we see the systems, The periphery of the system lies such that the southern part dips the westerly winds to a maximum extent. Hence we see more rains along kerala.

The systems should form close to andhra coast and Mid-central Bay of bengal for better impact.

The Tropical season So far:

Inter-tropical convergence zone is a place of Converging thunderstorms and many of the Systems develop close to the zone. Its is also the zone where the sun shines with a large intensity. Till now we are having a Below-Normal Monsoon. The reason may be due to the Movement of  Intense systems along the monsoon axis and causing Torrential rainfall along Central india and South most parts of Gangetic plains in India. The periphery of the storm resulted in the Dominant North-West winds along the System and caused a bulk of Dry air to flow towards the rest of region. The South China sea systems made an entry into the Bay of Bengal. Under Low Shear, The systems developed a lot and then attacked the Coast of West Bengal and Odisha.

By referring the above map, we can see the entire rainfall probabilities were concentrated along central india.

"Monsoon might gain power along the west Coast in the coming days"--by us

Nellore

VAGARIES OF NELLORE DISTRICT-

NELLORE District, a place Located in Coastal Andhra Region is a well known center of Trade and Education. Even though the district is small and compact,the vagaries of Rainfall varies every Kilometer. Practically speaking, the North-west of District, there lies a dry-rain shadow region. Where as a much greener Paddy fields to the South-east and East of the District. Nellore district gets 60-65% of Rains in North-East and Remaining 35-40% Rains in South West Monsoon. Some Areas of Nellore remain Bone dry during South-West Monsoon. Nellore district typically falls under the rain shadow region of South West Monsoon due to Eastern Ghats of Height 900 meters just 70 kms running parellel to the Coast. The thunderstorms forming over Kadapa area pounds well in Eastern ghat area with Kodur, Rajampeta section getting more than 20-35% excess rain than the Normal rain received by Nellore district.

South West Monsoon Of Nellore District-

Nellore distrct gets a normalized quantum of South West Monsoon. Kavali Mandal gets lowest rain during South-West Monsoon period, while the Tada Mandal gets the Highest Rainfall during the same time. The main reason behind lack of South West Monsoon is the Ghats to the west of district not allowing proper flow of Monsoonal winds at the surface levels. So less often the Sea breeze front interacts with the Clouds and make Thunderstorms. Further, the Winds from South-SouthWest at Mid-levels has Shown a good improvement in Thunderstorms.

During South-West Monsoon, the Upper air Circulation gives rains above Bapatla Latitude. In the mean while the August and September seasons, witness heavy Thunderstorms in Tada and Gudur Mandal, Flanking from Tirupathi or Bordering Tamilnadu.

Pics of Nellore During South West Monsoon. One can see Many dry days with almost less Number of Thunderstorms in June and July Month. When the winds turn South-Southwest, during Break Period, the Monsoon gets bountiful giving some rains to Nellore Town.

Some times, the rains get influenced by Systems Forming in Bay of Bengal. Suddenly the Thunderstorms make their way into the district.

AVAILABLE READINGS OF ATMOSPHERE 100kms South of Nellore....                               

                               Lifted index: -3.37
    LIFT computed using virtual temperature: -4.03
                                SWEAT index: 219.00
                                    K index: 37.80
                         Cross totals index: 19.30
                      Vertical totals index: 24.30
                        Totals totals index: 43.60
      Convective Available Potential Energy: 1883.71
             CAPE using virtual temperature: 2050.02
                      Convective Inhibition: -69.93
             CINS using virtual temperature: -43.65
                           Equilibrum Level: 136.86
 Equilibrum Level using virtual temperature: 136.83
                   Level of Free Convection: 810.39
             LFCT using virtual temperature: 832.96
                     Bulk Richardson Number: 357.93
          Bulk Richardson Number using CAPV: 389.53
  Temp [K] of the Lifted Condensation Level: 295.09
Pres [hPa] of the Lifted Condensation Level: 905.84
     Mean mixed layer potential temperature: 303.56
              Mean mixed layer mixing ratio: 18.74
              1000 hPa to 500 hPa thickness: 5824.00
Precipitable water [mm] for entire sounding: 61.12

INFERENCE-

In general, the Storms form in a place where the K-index is Very High and moisture availability there in Mid-levels. An article by NOAA shows, the development of Storms take place heavily if Convective inhibition is very less and the K-index is more than 40C. In nellore District, the storms arising from Kadapa district will cause heavy rainfall provided the Parameters like Vorticity, CAPE(Convective Available Potential Energy), K-index, PWAT (Preciptable Water Vapour) or a Trough or Circulation provided with Good dip of Winds over the District. Sea Breeze interaction is the Key factor for the Storms to Develop suddenly as the Moisture gets provided by Sea breeze font.

REFERENCE MAP OF MANDALS IN NELLORE DISTRICT-

North-East Monsoon Of Nellore District-

As the Sun comes down from the tropic of Cancer, the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone moves Downwards, Dipping Along the Peninsular India. This will cause the Winds to Flow from the evolving Siberian High to the Location of ITCZ. This forms a Weaker Wind pattern which flows from North-east. The winds while crossing Bay of Bengal, picks up some Moisture and dumps along the coasts of South-Coastal Andhra and Tamilnadu. The Active Phase of North-east Monsoon Corresponds to a System. The System may be a Trough, Low pressure, Cyclone, Depression. It is also seen that there is no year wiithout any system forming in the seas of Indian Ocean. For NELLORE DISTRICT, the Major part of Rains are due to North-East Monsoon. 

BRIEF SUMMARY OF CYCLONES IN NELLORE DISTRICT-

CYCLONE PRONE AREAS OF INDIA-

CYCLONE PRONE MANDALS OF NELLORE DISTRICT-

NEM CYCLONE TRACKS HITTING NELLORE DISTRICT (1979-2016) -

INFERENCE OF CYCLONIC ACTIVITY IN NELLORE DISTRICT-

"Positive Indian Ocean Dipole makes a possible Genesis of Lower Level Cyclonic Systems over Bay of Bengal, suppressing the formation of Tropical cyclones. But an exceptional case might arise, if Cyclone forms it will be confined to Lower latitudes during Postive IOD". We can expect a Bountiful Rainfall in Nellore District during the Positive IOD peiod in 70% of cases.

"Negative Indian Ocean Dipole makes a possible Genesis of Strong Cyclonic Systems over Bay of Bengal, Improving the possible formation of Tropical Cyclones". In one or Two cases, it Moves towards Nellore district. Its almost a Hit or Miss type. If System moves towards Nellore District then there comes the Rainfall.

POSITIVE IOD-

NEGATIVE IOD-

IOD VS CYCLONIC VORTICITY-

Active Period of North East Monsoon over Nellore District-

The increase in rainfall activity over Andhra-Tamilnadu coasts which takes place sometime around middle of October is generally considered as the "setting in of Northeast Monsoon". Normal date of onset of the northeast monsoon is around 20 October with a deviation of about a week on either side.
The rainfall over south peninsula towards the end of southwest monsoon season  is mainly in the interior districts and it generally occurs in the afternoon , evening or early part of the night. As the  season advances the rainfall is mainly in the coastal districts with the interior districts getting  less rain. It generally occurs during night and early morning hours . Maximum rainfall  mostly occurs between 2100 and 0300 hrs IST. Along the east coast rainfall during late night and morning hours  (2400 to 0900 hrs) is an usual feature of northeast monsoon. When there is a low, depression or cyclone close by the rainfall occurs throughout the day.

Rains in NELLORE District during 97B system, 2015

Rains Pelting the Coast of Mallamu, NELLORE under the influence of Deep Depression, 2015

Rain Fury in Nellore District, November-2015

Andhra Pradesh Witness the Loss to the District due to Rains, November-2015

Cyclone Roanu, Stationery near Nellore Coast, May-2016

Industrialization of Nellore District-

Nellore has shown a good growth in Literacy, Marketing, Industrialization these days due to good governance of the Political Leaders. Industrial effulents making the atmosphere pollute the District natural trends of Weather. 

Climate Change perspective leading for the slight increase in Rainfall over Nellore District year by Year. There will slight change of Strength of Monsoons from now.

PULICAT LAKE BIOLOGICAL ECO-SYSTEMS GETTING AFFECT BY CLIMATE CHANGE-

PENCHALAKONDA ECO-SYSTEM LOSING ITS GREENERY IN NELLORE DISTRICT-

CONCLUSION-

Nellore district is one of the best place for Tourism and Wondering Ecosystems. Monsoon of Nellore district adds more importance. The core ap Website measures and displays the Monsoon status of All districts of Andhra Pradesh. We can visit them at http://core.ap.gov.in/CMDashBoard/Index.aspx

Andhra Government acted in a right way and initiated many Afforestation acts between 2010-2015 period, which improved the status of Nellore District eco-systems.

BY

B.SAI PRANEETH