Monsoon Times

South West Monsoon May get Active Over Kerala by August 1st Week-

South West Monsoon, which was active over Country Till mid July, currently under a break of Rains. The reason may be due to the Mid-Indian Ocean system which moved towards Madagascar and another reason might be the absence of Strong Madden Julian Oscillation over the Indian Ocean Basin. The MJO pulse triggers the cloud band along the west coast and cause some heavy rainfall associated with clouding and greater evaporation rates in Arabian sea. The possible Madden Julian Oscillation might come closer to Kerala coast by August 1st week. Then we can expect some heavy rains at the southern Tip of the Country.

 

 "Even there are other factors governing the Atmospheric parameters, the MJO plays a major

role in making the outburst of Moisture over Seas".

The other parameters like Kelvin Wave, Rossiby Wave help in the sudden development of Energy and has given  supply of Lot of energy to the Tropical systems arising in the Oceans.

Heavy Outburst of Rains possible over Madhya Pradesh as per GFS now. But due to the east ward shift of trough, Saurastra might get some good rains.

                                                                                                                                   By

                                                                                                                      B.SAI PRANEETH