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Heavy rain lashes Karaikudi, South TamilNadu-

Tropical Update-07

Heavy Rain Likely over South-Tamilnadu and SriLanka-

The system INVEST-91B which intensified to a near depression status and has made landfall over Srilankan Landmass. The cloud bands associated with system are very strong and will pound the coast of Srilankan coast with heavy rainfall. The system as per the latest forecast trend, likely to move to Gulf Of Mannar and stay for some time there. Lets investigate the conditions in Gulf of Mannar and make some conclusions.

Map-1-LOCATION OF LOW PRESSURE:

MAP-2- CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE:

Conditions in Gulf Of Mannar--

Total Precipitable Water-71.821 kg/m^2

Total Cloud water-3.0887 kg/m^2

Sea-Surface Temperature-32 degrees

Heat potential-140 KJ/m^2

INFERENCE-

As the system reaches the Gulf of Mannar, it will reach to its peak threshold of convection and make a strong cloud band around its center. The places of South Tamilnadu will get a very heavy rainfall. Heavy rainfall will be confined on 16th May and by 17th May, the activity will be shifted to Central and North Tamilnadu.

 

NOTABLE EVENTS-

The system will move North-West and reach Gulf of Mannar by today evening. It will start tracking Northwards for some time and thereafter North-Northeast wards. I am expecting 16-20 May will bring out good rainy days to Tamilnadu. 

WOS-ADVISORY:

- People of South-coastal Tamilnadu and Srilanka are requested to take precautionary measures to avoid the problems caused by floods.

- Heavy to very Heavy rain likely over many places of Srilanka and South Tamilnadu under the influence of Low pressure on 16th and 17th. By evening, the heavy rainfall might start.

By

B.Sai Praneeth

(Weather of South India)

                               

Tropical Update-06

SYSTEM UNDER SHEAR-WILL IT SUSTAIN??

The system "INVEST-91B" over South-West Bay of Bengal, Facing a problem shearing of Outer Bands. This means the loss of Convection around the Storm center. The rainfall around the storm will subside for some time. Then it will regenerate, by pumping fresh Moisture and Heat into the Outer Bands and make up good Convection. The main reason what i say is "There was a slight shear now the system is being encountered...Soon it will be cleared off and the system will fetch back the Convection"...Says Hrishi Jawahar, A member of Weather Of south india.

EFFECT OF SHEAR ON A TROPICAL SYSTEM-

The shear condition arises when the Wind in different layers of atmosphere moves in different directions. If the wind moves in such a way, the cloud wont develop in height and results in Weak convection. Convection means the presence of Thick clouds around the system. Less shear, More strong the system will be.

Will the shear impacts the system any further??

INFERENCE-

Now the system has been encountering a moderate shear stress on its way to Nagapattinam-Coastline. Once it crosses the area above 10N, it will gain good convection and the less sheared path will make favourable conditions to build around the system. "The system will be intensified to deep-depression status, once it climbs up the latitude"....says an young and enthusiastic blogger Ameen Bijli. 

SYSTEM TRACK--(SOON)

The track and the final destiny of the system will be published today night after a small consolidation talk with the members....Stay tuned!!!!

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