Upcoming Tropical update-01

Depression to develop over Central Bay of Bengal Soon

Areas Likely to get affected-

1. Odisha

2. North Andhra Coast

3. Coastal Burma

4.West Bengal

But the system is likely to Make landfall as a Low pressure close to Odisha Coast. The prevail Shear conditions, not allowing the System for a rapid intensification to a Tropical Cyclone.

North east Monsoon

North East Monsoon Forecasts-

North-east Monsoon is the crucial Monsoon for South-Peninsular India. Mainly, the places of South Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu gets about 40-60% of their annual rainfall from North-east Monsoon. First the season start with interiors getting good rains around Afternoon, Evening, Early part of Night. During the transition period, the Mild westerlies prevail and the Moisture available over the interior Peninsula will be good with a good amounts of Vorticity and CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy), it will help in Thunderstorm formation.

Terms-

Vorticity-Raising mass of air and it will lead to Convergence.

CAPE-It tells us the amount of energy present in the atmosphere which helps in cloud formation. Its measured in Joules/kg.

OUR NEM FORECASTS-

ENSO-

IOD-

BAY OF BENGAL SST'S-

The prevailing conditions Show a Normal Monsoon with less consistent flood alert and it will be a Normal Monsoon 2016. There will be 2-3 disturbances to South Andhra coast this year but The North-east Monsoon will be good in Heavy weights from Sirikazhi-Vedaranyam stretch.

Pre monsoon rains

Rainy days Ahead for Odisha and East India-

The South-west Monsoon season has almost come to an end, with some activity now persisting over Odisha and parts of North Coastal Andhra. The rains will continue till the first half of next week  and Likely to reduce from there on.

The interior Thunderstorm season of Tamilnadu will get a good boost with heavy rains from next week Monday and lasting till the onset of North-east Monsoon.

Depression likely to form over North Bay of Bengal-

The latest charts pointing a depression to form over North Bay of Bengal and it will drift towards Bangladesh coast by 13th and weaken thereby. It will hold westerlies till 15th and from 16th, the easterlies will pick pace over the Bay of Bengal. This will there by get strengthen on 18th and the Onset of North-east Monsoon will be declared.

Tamilnadu upcoming

Thunderstorm season to Start over Interior Tamilnadu:

The Rainfall season Likely to begin over interior Tamilnadu and Parts of South Interior Karnataka. But only thing is that the presence of Systems above the Latitude of Tamilnadu making the relative subsidence and inhibiting the formation of Thunderstorms. The North-east Monsoon, which is scheduled to arrive around 18th of October, likely to create some sort of Instability along with the easterlies blowing along the surface levels of Tamilnadu Coast.

The Main dates for interior Thunderstorms will be around 10th-15th October. Districts of Salem, Coimbatore, Tiruppur, Erode, Dharmapuri, Tiruvannamalai, Tiruchi, Madurai may witness widespread Thunderstorm activity during that dates and the Inter-tropical Convergence zone may leave India by October 8th and hence the Easterlies will get strengthen along the east coast of India.

North East Monsoon

North East Monsoon Onset Date-

The Much awaiting North east Monsoon likely to start by 17/18th of October. The easterlies may give moderate rains by 20th October. The Monsoon expected to Remain Normal over the places of South Peninsular India.

Our Earlier Forecast--

Bay of Bengal-October

A Tropical Development Likely over North Bay of Bengal soon

West Bengal and Odisha to get ready for a system-

As per the available data, a system might move towards the Bengal/North Odisha Coast as a windy and rainy blob. It may cause some sort of damage to the coastal areas.

Gujarat and Marathwada to brace for rainy Days-

A low pressure area over North-Karnataka and Vidarbha persists. It would travel North-West and affect Gujarat coast in next 48 hours.

                         

BY

SAI PRANEETH, WOS TEAM

POWER GENERATION ANALYSIS

POWER SYSTEM OPERATION BY MONSOON-

We have a wide Range of Power systems in our country and vast research is going on regarding a power network stability, since its being exposed to Atmospheric conditions and parameters like Temperature, Humidity, Rainfall influence the Generation, Transmission of the useful Power along different parts of Country. Since we are Monsoon based country, we have vast resources of Water storage and heavy quantum of energy being taken from Water Source.

OUR ANALYSIS-

During the operation of Power system, we have various disturbances caused by the wind and ice Loading. If we take Jammu and Kashmir, the area is covered with snow almost 4-5 months in an year, which leads to the gathering of snow over Transmission lines. It can be effectively reduced by using Underground Cables than using Overhead Cables.

In South India, there are places which gets affected by Cyclones and severe weather events. The protection and operation of Power system depends on-

1.Rainfall constaint-(Operation)

2.Wind Velocity-(Protection)

3.Temperature-(Resistance of Transmission line)

4.Local Meso-Scale disturbances-(Localized Power flow affected)

Measures Should be taken in-order to Curb the effect of the atmospheric conditions, in-order to improve our Power systems and we are currently working in a project on to reduce the transmission line losses by Atmosphere.

                                                                                                          BY Sai Praneeth, WOS Team

Monsoon Rainfall 2016

INDIAN MONSOON PERFORMANCE OVER SOUTH INDIA

Kerala-Deficient

Karnataka-Below Normal

Andhra Pradesh-Above Normal

Tamilnadu-Normal

Telangana-Excess

Note-

The Low pressure which formed 5 days back brought heavy Rainfall along Telangana and North Andhra. Even places like Chennai, Pondicherry Got good Thunderstorms due to that synoptic impact. Now its lying close to Vidarbha and Adjoing areas of Marathawada. Its likely to Bring Heavy Rains along North-interior Karnataka and Some parts Telangana and Vidarbha.

Rainfall So far This year