WeatherUpdate-01

Heavy Rain On cards to Entire India as the Bay of Bengal is put in Notice-

Bay of Bengal provided with a good Amount of Sea surface temperatures is Now going to Launch a New system. The system may develop close to Chennai coastline as a circulation at first and under Favorable  Sea surface Temperatures, The system may develop into a Monsoonal Depression and march Towards Odisha as per the Latest Weather Analysis.

If the Above System Happens to be true, then there will be a massive rain or Flood breaking rains along the indian West Coast and Adjoining Odisha and Andhra Coasts.

Clearly From the Above Map, The Indian Ocean Dipole turned negative Showing the Sea Surface Temperatures right on the Eastern Indian Ocean. With the Persisting Lanina and the Positive IOD condition, the development of a Monsoon system may be a predominant role. I expect a growth in the brewing SST's over the Eastern Indian Ocean, but As per the analysis of POMMA(Australia-IOD Center), the IOD will turn into neutral by December bringing a Change in the persisting weather parameters over the Indian Ocean.

INFERENCE-

Now, the rains likely to get well over Saurastra, Western Madhya Pradesh, Vidharba, North Konkan in Next 24 hours.

By

B.SAI PRANEETH

Monsoon Times

South West Monsoon May get Active Over Kerala by August 1st Week-

South West Monsoon, which was active over Country Till mid July, currently under a break of Rains. The reason may be due to the Mid-Indian Ocean system which moved towards Madagascar and another reason might be the absence of Strong Madden Julian Oscillation over the Indian Ocean Basin. The MJO pulse triggers the cloud band along the west coast and cause some heavy rainfall associated with clouding and greater evaporation rates in Arabian sea. The possible Madden Julian Oscillation might come closer to Kerala coast by August 1st week. Then we can expect some heavy rains at the southern Tip of the Country.

 

 "Even there are other factors governing the Atmospheric parameters, the MJO plays a major

role in making the outburst of Moisture over Seas".

The other parameters like Kelvin Wave, Rossiby Wave help in the sudden development of Energy and has given  supply of Lot of energy to the Tropical systems arising in the Oceans.

Heavy Outburst of Rains possible over Madhya Pradesh as per GFS now. But due to the east ward shift of trough, Saurastra might get some good rains.

                                                                                                                                   By

                                                                                                                      B.SAI PRANEETH

Monsoon So far.....

MONSOON AND ITS VAGARIES (June 7th-July 9th)

Monsoon Started its Journey by setting right over Kerala on June 7th. It made its progress fast and as soon as it touched Karwar latitude, it stopped for a while. Then again an upper Air circulation started to form close to South Bay of Bengal and it moved close to Andhra Coast. The southern Periphery of the circulation fetched Moderate to Heavy rain over isolated places of North Tamilnadu and South Andhra Coast initially. As it moved further Close, North Andhra got good rainfall, with few places getting heavy rain about 15cms in 24 hours.

There after, the Monsoon underwent a fast progress and caused Rainfall throughout its path. Initially, the off Shore Divergence led to heavy rainfall in the coastal areas till June 29th. In that, the place in Maharastra, Harnai fetched a heavy rainfall of 1730mm in just 10 days, while Mahabaleshwar in Ghats got a mere 408mm.


But now conditions Changed and the Places along Ghats getting Heavy rain...Mahabaleshwar in the Ghats got a whooping Jump from 408mm to 1400mm in just 8 days. Mumbai too got good rainfall. Udupi, Kodagu districts got a large excess rainfall.

FLOODS-RECENT--

Madhya Pradesh getting heavy rains under the influence of Low pressure sustaining over land for about 72 hours. Many places got over 500mm in the past 72 hours.