Forecast for next week:

April-May outlook

APRIL MAY FORECAST:

Lets think out of the box...(for April May forecast to south india)

Weather of south india----New concept on MJO(Madden Julian Oscillation) and effect of it on vorticity:

We should take major factors like:

1)ENSO(Elnino-southern Oscillation)
2)MJO(Madden Julian Oscillation)
3)Kelvin/Rossiby Waves
4)Shear and TCHP(Tropical Cyclone Heat potential)

ENSO forecast for april and may:

ENSO will mainting its falling trend, but may lie in the positive end. Hence the Reverse-Walker circulation will tend to reduce the probability of tropical cyclone formation.

MJO impact during april and may:

By second week-end of may, the MJO goes to Phase-3. This will maintain a good Sea surface temperatures and superimposes during leading tip period. Thus it will tend to increase the probability of tropical cyclone during may.

Kelvin/Rossiby Waves during april/may:

These waves will give energy to the Tropical cyclone, by a constant process called isothermal process (dQ=0). This will aid to the growth of Tropical cyclones and will effect the moment. Trapped up Kelvin waves may bring huge amounts of energy to cyclonegenisis.

Shear and TCHP:

Shear depends on the wind which creates opposite nature to the formation of Tropical cyclone. Whenever a Vertical wind shear occurs, the cyclone gets affected and sheared off(Teared). Thus some of the global cyclones dissipate in open waters. It changes Time to Time.
This occurs due to the trade wind motion at mid-upper levels of the atmosphere

Heat potential depends on the amount of net Heat available, so that the cyclone uses it and grows big. It depends on the Sea-surface Temperatures and trade-wind.

Overall inference:

I am expecting a trough to develop around second-week of may, mainly due to MJO interference and available SST's. The Computerised model for long-range forecast "CFS" predicted the same and some experts expecting a low pressure to move towards andhra coast. It naturally happens for once in 5-10 years. Let's see...

Weather of south india....always with you.....

pic 1: ENSO status
pic 2: MJO status
pic 3: map of historical summer cyclones and their motion

Pic 1:

Pic 2:

Pic 3:

Hot Weather Prevails over Many Parts of South India:

NEWS:

After a bountiful North-east Monsoon, over the parts of Tamilnadu and cool winter over entire south-India, Now its the time for much awaiting season of sweating namely Summer season.

Sun has been tracking up and trespassed the equator five days back. The Dry air over the interior parts of the country, making up the hot conditions and several places of Andhra recording more than 45 degrees, that too during march.

WEATHER for "TODAY":

Parts of Rayalaseema(Chittoor, Kadapa, Kurnool, Anantapur), Coastal Andhra pradesh(Nellore, Prakasham, Guntur, Krishna), North-interior Karnataka(Belgaum, Bellary, Gulbarga, Hubli) and some parts of interior Tamilnadu(Krishnagiri, Vellore, Kancheepuram, Salem, Dharmapuri, Madurai, Sivaganga, Namakkal, Karur) likely to get temperatures between 39-45 degrees.

Tamilnadu----Moderate Heat(38-41 degrees) possible

Karnataka---Moderate Heat(34-41 degrees) possible

Andhra Pradesh-----High heat(40-46 degrees) possible

Kerala----Less Heat(32-36 degrees) possible

Telangana-----Good heat(40-43 degrees) possible

Any Chance for rain/showers??

-->>Parts of Kerala and south-coastal Karnataka likely to get some showers by today afternoon/evening...

-->>There is a sharp dip in the streamline wind flow over the parts of South-east Arabian Sea, which may aid some moisture to kerala.

-->>The flow of Moisture from kerala to Tamilnadu might bring down the Day temperatures by 1-2 degrees. Inspite of that relief during daytime, the nights will be uncomfortable.(Clouds obstruct the Heat to escape from the earth, thus increasing heat budget).

PICTURES ATTACHED:

PIC 1: Summary of yesterday temperatures over andhra
PIC2: Summary of yesterday temperatures over Telangana
PIC3: Forecast map by "WEATHER OF SOUTH INDIA"