Weather Warning for Andhra Pradesh on 8th May 2020

Weather Forecast for Andhra Pradesh on 8th May 2020

Thundershowers possible in some areas of Srikakulam and Viziangaram districts while Hot Weather conditions will prevail in Rayalaseema

The Coromandel Floods 2015


NORTH-EAST MONSOON 2015 WAS DISAPPOINTING??

(A Write up by Sai Krishna)


1) Highlights of The Topic:

A) There Was a Very Scanty Amount of NE Monsoon Rainfall in OCT (less than 6 cm) The Others  

Came From The First Week Rains .Which Can Be Called Officially As NEM, but the month of  

October was a failure.
B) A Huge Amount Of Rainfall in A Span Of 30 Days Almost 150+ Cm fell In Many Places with 

Most Of The Spells Being very Intense and Not Being Spread Evenly Which ultimately Caused 

"The 2015 SOUTH INDIAN FLOODS".
 


C) The Monsoon Had Been A Exciting Monsoon For The Weather Enthusiasts But A Horrifying and  
Sad Monsoon For The Common Tamil Nadu People.



D) Almost 50% Of The Water From The Rains Had Not Been Stored. The Waters Were Wasted Into  

The Sea Which Resulted Water Problems Even After These Deluges. AS THE RAINS WERE'NT 

EVENLY SPREAD. 

AS A RESULT CHENNAI WAS FLOATING UNDER FLOODS WITH ALMOST 10 LAKH  
PEOPLE SUFFERING. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2) " A GOOD LESSON GIVEN BY THE MONSOON TO THE PEOPLE" A) Restoring HUMANITY. b) Also Taught That Money Is Nothing and Humans Influence is The Best. c) All Rich and Poor are Equal in Front Of Nature.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3) This Monsoon is Not even Near 2005 Monsoon which Was the Best Monsoon For Chennai and  

Tamil Nadu 2005 Is a Monsoon which needs to Be remembered. The Rains Were Evenly Spread  

Unlike 2015. Places Of Chennai Experienced Floods in 2005 But Not Like What We Experienced  
This Monsoon. Chennai Received A Total Of 211 cm in The NEM in 2005. But There Weren't 

These Intense Floods.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4) A Full Report on Chennai's Floods in 2015. Cuddalore, Chennai, Kanchipuram and Thiruvallur are worst-affected districts. Here are some  

numerical facts with dates:
Oct 28, 2015: North-East monsoon entered Tamil Nadu.
Nov 8, 2015: Low pressure developed into A Deep Depression in Bay of Bengal, that led to heavy  

rains.
Nov 15,2015: Another Low Pressure Led to Very Heavy Rains Of Above 200mm+
Dec 1, 2015: Heavy downpour started that continued intermittently till Wednesday,
Dec 30, 2015: From 8.30 am on Dec 1 to 8.30 am on Dec 2, 330 mm rainfall was recored. From 

Nagapattinam to Cuddalore, rainfall from 45 mm to 133 mm was recorded.

-As per the IMD department, 100 mm rains are likely to occur for next 2 days. 40% mobile and 20%  

landline connections are disrupted.
-So far, the death toll has been recorded as 269 in Tamil Nadu, 54 in Andhra Pradesh and 2 in  

Puducherry.


Rescue operations

a) 28 teams of NDRF with 944 personnel and 102 boats have been deployed.
b) 7 teams of 434 army personnels are deployed to carry out relief and rescue work.
c) Till now, 40,432 people have been successfully evacuated. In Puducherry,
d) 2 teams of NDRF including 70 workers and 8 boats have been deployed. In Andhra Pradesh,
e) 6 teams of NDRF including 211 workers and 21 boats have been deployed.

Between 9–10 November 2015,

Neyveli received 483 mm (19.0 in) of rainfall and rains continued to lash Cuddalore, Chidambaram 

and Chennai.. Tirumala, the place in interior got over 300mm of rainfall. Continuous rains led to low-

lying parts of Chennai becoming inundated by 13 November, resulting in the evacuation of over 

1000 people from their homes.


"The flooding in Chennai city was worsened by years of illegal development and inadequate levels of flood preparedness".

Much of the city remained flooded on 17 November, though rainfall had largely ceased. 
Chennai received 1,049 mm (41.3 in) of rainfall in November, the highest recorded since November 1918.
When 1,088 mm (42.8 in) of rainfall was recorded in 2005, The flooding in Chennai city was described as the worst in a century. Rain poured like a monster that time.
The continued rains led to schools and colleges remaining closed across Puducherry and Chennai, 

Kancheepuram and Tiruvallur districts in Tamil Nadu and fishermen were warned against sailing 

because of high waters and rough seas.
Reason behind the floods??

Elnino, the season changer in most of the parts of world, is one of the responsible factor for such a 

severity of floods in chennai region.
Sea-Surface Temperatures


The sea-surface temperature in Bay of Bengal remained at a good potential and provided "More-than 

Normal Moisture" to the systems like 96B and 97B, which caused heavy torrential rainfall over 

chennai.

96B-DEPRESSION


97B-DEPRESSION


CHENNAI FLOODS-CLOUDS



------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

5) Why Chennai is Suffering In Water Crisis Even After Such Heavy Rains?


After December 7th - 2015,Chennai Hasn't A Received Even 2 mm Of Rainfall Till May -1st (2016)
and Also The Lack Of Water Storage Plans Has Lead To A Disappointing Monsoon in Terms Of 

People Suffering In Water and Also Suffering For Water After a 100 Days. There is No Need To 

Blame The Government.  Any Government In The World Would Have Failed Controlling 150 CM 

in 30 Days. The People Are To Be Blamed For Constructing In Illegal Places Of The Adyar Rivers.

Velachery,a residential area next to Pallikaranai marshland, gets flooded almost every November and 

was among the worst affected this year too. Wetlands are important as they help reduce the impact of 

storm damage and flooding, but these are fast shrinking.
“Some 40 years ago, Pallikaranai was a 50 sq. km marshland and now it has been reduced to a tenth 

of its size. 90% of the marshland is lost to construction of IT corridors, gated community, garbage 

dump, sewage treatment plant, etc,” said Jayaraman. Shekhar pointed out other areas, including 

MRC Nagar, built on the Adyar estuary, the Mass Rapid Transit System, built almost wholly on the 

Buckingham canal, Koyambedu Bus Terminal, the expressway and buildings on the Old 

Mahabalipuram Road, that are examples of blatant encroachments on waterways and water bodies.

"We require more than just good infrastructure. It will require good data and maps, sound planning 

practices and enhanced accountability of public agencies that are responsible for the way our city is 

shaped,” concluded Shekhar. Improper design and maintenance of drainage systems Media reports stated the Chennai Corporation had ignored September warnings of above-average 

monsoonal rains issued by the Indian Meteorological Department and that extensive and costly 

projects begun in 2013 to desilt city storm drains had been ineffectively conducted. The drains 

themselves were reported to have been shoddily built and improperly designed. A 2014 CAG report 

revealed that a diversion channel from the Buckingham canal near Okkiyum Maduvu to the sea (a 

drain project under the JNNURM scheme) could have saved South Chennai from flooding;
the government, however, dropped the 100 crore scheme, which, had it been completed, would have 

drained floodwater from southern neighbourhood at a rate of 3,500 cubic feet per second.
The 2014 CAG report said the defective planning of flood control projects caused delays and 

increased costs, defeating the objective of the scheme. "The fact is that alleviation of inundation of 

flood water in Chennai city remains largely unachieved"

FLOOD WATER DRAIN SYSTEM


ULTRA-FLOOD WATER DRAIN SYSTEM


(Can be followed to achieve good water storage)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CONCLUSIONS-



1)Almost More Than a 100+ People Have Officially Died in Tamil Nadu During The Period From 

NOV 1 to Dec 5.
2)More than A 400 People Have Died and Almost A 50,000 People Lost Their Homes and 10 Lakh 

People Were Affected By these Floods.

3)When There is More Than 10,00,000 Lakh People Devastated By Floods Who Can it Be called As 

An Good Monsoon..???

                                                             
(Chennai Floods 2015)
                                                                
(Rain pounds Tirupati)





Premonsoon talk with my friends

"DAZZLING PRE-MONSOON SEASON AHEAD FOR SOUTH-INDIA"

Last Year there was a great activity over the interior Tamilnadu and adjoining kerala, during Summer season. Many places fell under above normal criteria. "Even places like Chennai received a heavy pre-monsoonal spell of nearly 110mm during April".
CLOUDS BLOOM OVER "TIRUPATI CITY" ON APRIL 15th,2015 MORNING
INDICATING THE START OF PRE-MONSOON SEASON-2015.

Weather expert Pradeep john told that the 2015-Premonsoon season was an extraordinary one. Salem city got more than 9 spells of rain which yielded a total rainfall of 359mm in pre-monsoon season. While Madurai got nearly 495mm, indicating a great spell of rain. 

"Many might be feeling for rains....also many will be hating heat...when will the heat go???"...Same i feel...

I Have collected the feelings of the people from different places--

Talk with Sudharsana, Avinashi (Tiruppur district):

Sudharsana, went for a trip to her grandfather's house at avinashi. Really avinashi recorded a temperature of 40 degrees around 2.30pm. She told it was unable to stay outdoors due to more amount of heat radiation in the surroundings. This shows the poor performance of pre-monsoon season over that place. The pre-monsoon showers generally controls the heat to an extent. May be she might have felt it as a burden, bearing that much heat at a constant rate till 4pm. But to to the change in the upper air winds, sufficient clouds are not forming and pumping moisture to the upper layers. The conditions will retrieve by May second week with some rains over the interiors.

Photos by Sudharsana-


Talk with Sai krishna, Chepauk (Chennai)

Sai krishna updates his weather as a co-owner of "weather of south india blog". He says it was a great dry spell that chennai Hardly got rains after the December floods. He adds that last week, His place got over 37.5 degrees, but sea breeze came to rescue and brought the temperature down. This was not the case to Sudharsana of Avinashi. Tomorrow, i am expecting for further raise in temperatures over Chennai. Particularly, the sea breeze will be setting after 2.00pm tomorrow. So much worried for Chennai. Chennai need to wait for the monsoon arrival to brace for a heavy spell start up.
Photo by Sai krishna-


Special Photo-

Place- Irinjalakuda, Kerala
Photo courtesy-Sanjana Kumar's Cousin
Occasion-Sunset with dry weather :-(

Any Chance Of rains over Interiors???

After a bad startup of pre-monsoonal season, its the time for interiors to begin the show. Latest GFS run shows a good May month is ahead for interior areas of Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Telangana, Interior-Tamilnadu, South-interior Karnataka and Goa.

Though, coastal Tamilnadu and Andhra will not get much showers, There will be a great chance for interior Regions. Especially The places around the Western ghats of kerala and karnataka are prone to Line-of-Wind Discontinuity and will get Heavy rainfall.

What is Line of Wind Discontinuity??


Explanation-
"When the wind comes from either direction, there will be a collision of air particles. In the above map we can notice a line, formed due to the wind from the either sides. The areas under the line of wind-discontinuity are prone to Intense Thunderstorms, when there is suitable amounts of Moisture inflow from both the sides". This is the main reason, places like Ooty, Valparai, Chinnakallar, Palakkad, Walakkad(Silent Valley), Kodagu, Wayanadu, Punalur, Thrissur gets great amounts of pre-monsoonal rainfall. Premonsoonal rainfall makes the place look beautiful during the hot summer. One can get a great relief from burning summer, if we go to these areas as trip.
Pre-monsoon Thunderstorm over Thrissur, Kerala-

Premonsoonal clouds gather at Kodagu, Karnataka-


Premonsoon shower over Tirupati-May 31, 2015-

I here by conclude that the pre-monsoon heat is essential for the pick up of monsoonal winds over india. But in terms of relief, its poor over country especially south india. I am also confident that the "May month will be better than april".








Heavy Monsoon on Cards

Chase For Intense-Monsoon starts-Conditions Gearing up

                                                                                                  -By Sai praneeth

The South-Indian wait??

For the past 2 years, there was a drought-like condition in many parts of country. Inspit of very-heavy rainfall over coastal Tamilnadu and South-coastal Andhra pradesh, drought prevailed over rest of south-india. During 2014-elnino like conditions prevailed and the monsoon systems didn't materialize over india. 
We have seen cyclone Komen over Sunderbans last year, which caused a good rainfall in july. But monsoon failed to make its promise during august and September.
 

2014-Elnino-like conditions
2015-Elnino conditions
During 2014,2015 there were severe conditions, which didn't supplied enough energy to the indian ocean, to trigger an intense monsoonal system.

Hud-Hud Matter??

Cyclone Hud-hud was an exceptional case, it evolved due to the superimposition of rossiby wave and MJO pulse. The MJO and Rossiby wave are the energy banks which containes heat in trapped form and propogates from one place to another. Rossiby travels from east to west and MJO travels from west to east. Some times they meet a point and cause a heavy system irrespective of elnino/lanina. 

This Time Monsoon Hit/Miss???

To see this, we have to take main factors like-

ENSO-(ELNINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION)

Its the matter of pacific and the latent heat stored in the pacific ocean constitutes the changes in the walker circulation. The walker circulation is the sole responsible of seasonal variations of climate and weather. For the sake of brevity, the NOAA divided pacific into 4 divisions. (Nino 1+2,3,3.4,4)
elnino-conditions
       Lanina-conditions

Latest conditions:

Nino(1+2)
                            
Nino-3-

                             
Nino-3.4-

                             
Nino-4-

                             

Inference-

So, by the end of august, there will be lanina like conditions and the amplitude of south-west monsoonal rainfall concentrates form second-week of august  to the end of september. I am expecting a post-monsoon low-pressure to touch the shores of andhra pradesh around october 1st week, as per latest CFS trend.

july- Average rainfall expected


August-Above Normal rainfall expected


September-Above Normal rainfall expected


Madden Julian Oscillation-

Madden julain oscillation is a main constituent future of Rainfall pattern over India. Even in a massive elnino year, there will be some rains over india which is a consequence of Madden julian oscillation. I say it as a gift for monsoonal countries like India, Australia. During Lanina years, more latent heat is transferred to indian ocean and when MJO superimposes with the Sea surface temperatures(Latent heat).
\



It works on the principle of law of conservation of energy. "Energy can neither be created nor be destroyed but it can be changed from one form to another form". Over a period of 30-90 days, it suppresses the rainfall for some period and gives heavy rainfall or even monsoon systems over a period of time. It will dissipate, when it touches the central portion of pacific. Again, the energy is gathered in the form of latent heat over africa and the pulse with trapped energy, propogates east-wards.

Latest-Conditions-


Inference--

Recently MJO pulse became zero in magnitude and negligible Gain-margin. Now again, the energy is gathering near the east coast of somalia and the amplitude of MJO likely to increase by june.

Quasi-Bennial Oscillation-

Its the upper air directional effect. It influences the Monsoonal flow and the strength of monsoon currents. The clouds develop well if the QBO resultant wind direction and Monsoonal direction are same.


INFERENCE-

It is seen that the Monsoon will be good, if the QBO vector points to westwards, supporting the monsoonal flow at lower-levels. QBO vector is taken at 30-70hPa levels from Base ground (1133hPa).

Latest Observation-(Fight of Mean surface level pressure with a Low in indian ocean)


INFERENCE-

Due to a low persisting over southern indian ocean, the cross equatorial currents are unable to set. The low is expected to clear off by 2-3 days and conditions of Monsoon will be back to normal.