Upcoming Tropical update-01

Depression to develop over Central Bay of Bengal Soon

Areas Likely to get affected-

1. Odisha

2. North Andhra Coast

3. Coastal Burma

4.West Bengal

But the system is likely to Make landfall as a Low pressure close to Odisha Coast. The prevail Shear conditions, not allowing the System for a rapid intensification to a Tropical Cyclone.

North east Monsoon

North East Monsoon Forecasts-

North-east Monsoon is the crucial Monsoon for South-Peninsular India. Mainly, the places of South Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu gets about 40-60% of their annual rainfall from North-east Monsoon. First the season start with interiors getting good rains around Afternoon, Evening, Early part of Night. During the transition period, the Mild westerlies prevail and the Moisture available over the interior Peninsula will be good with a good amounts of Vorticity and CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy), it will help in Thunderstorm formation.

Terms-

Vorticity-Raising mass of air and it will lead to Convergence.

CAPE-It tells us the amount of energy present in the atmosphere which helps in cloud formation. Its measured in Joules/kg.

OUR NEM FORECASTS-

ENSO-

IOD-

BAY OF BENGAL SST'S-

The prevailing conditions Show a Normal Monsoon with less consistent flood alert and it will be a Normal Monsoon 2016. There will be 2-3 disturbances to South Andhra coast this year but The North-east Monsoon will be good in Heavy weights from Sirikazhi-Vedaranyam stretch.

Pre monsoon rains

Rainy days Ahead for Odisha and East India-

The South-west Monsoon season has almost come to an end, with some activity now persisting over Odisha and parts of North Coastal Andhra. The rains will continue till the first half of next week  and Likely to reduce from there on.

The interior Thunderstorm season of Tamilnadu will get a good boost with heavy rains from next week Monday and lasting till the onset of North-east Monsoon.

Depression likely to form over North Bay of Bengal-

The latest charts pointing a depression to form over North Bay of Bengal and it will drift towards Bangladesh coast by 13th and weaken thereby. It will hold westerlies till 15th and from 16th, the easterlies will pick pace over the Bay of Bengal. This will there by get strengthen on 18th and the Onset of North-east Monsoon will be declared.