Coonoor

Why Coonoor Gets Heaviest Rainfall during North-east Monsoon

Generally during North-east Monsoon or  Summer Season, when a Low pressure system tracks along Lakshadweep sea, Places along Kerala coast get Rainfall, which lies between 40-100mm QPF. But the places in the Nilgiri District of Tamilnadu, particularly Coonoor-Kothagiri-Ketti Belt gets Heavy rainfall of around 100-120 mm QPF. 

One extra-ordinary rainfall, 

Orography of Nilgiris-

When during South west monsoon, Coonoor belt is subjected to mild rainfall, where as the other stations like gudalur, portimund Avalanche is subjected to heavy rainfall. During the North east Monsoon, the winds are from east and the Western parts like gudalur, avalanche become dry. But it is noted a heavy rainfall along Coonoor belt. When Synoptic system moves close Kerala coast, Coonoor-Kothagiri belt witness heavy rainfall. Even if we take 2009 as example, a Depression became well marked close to Kerala coast and Nilgiri witnessed extremely heavy rains. One of the heaviest rains in Tamilnadu state, Ketti with 820mm in 24 hours.

Upcoming Tropical update-01

Depression to develop over Central Bay of Bengal Soon

Areas Likely to get affected-

1. Odisha

2. North Andhra Coast

3. Coastal Burma

4.West Bengal

But the system is likely to Make landfall as a Low pressure close to Odisha Coast. The prevail Shear conditions, not allowing the System for a rapid intensification to a Tropical Cyclone.

North east Monsoon

North East Monsoon Forecasts-

North-east Monsoon is the crucial Monsoon for South-Peninsular India. Mainly, the places of South Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu gets about 40-60% of their annual rainfall from North-east Monsoon. First the season start with interiors getting good rains around Afternoon, Evening, Early part of Night. During the transition period, the Mild westerlies prevail and the Moisture available over the interior Peninsula will be good with a good amounts of Vorticity and CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy), it will help in Thunderstorm formation.

Terms-

Vorticity-Raising mass of air and it will lead to Convergence.

CAPE-It tells us the amount of energy present in the atmosphere which helps in cloud formation. Its measured in Joules/kg.

OUR NEM FORECASTS-

ENSO-

IOD-

BAY OF BENGAL SST'S-

The prevailing conditions Show a Normal Monsoon with less consistent flood alert and it will be a Normal Monsoon 2016. There will be 2-3 disturbances to South Andhra coast this year but The North-east Monsoon will be good in Heavy weights from Sirikazhi-Vedaranyam stretch.