Dynamic models saying a strong Monsoon onset possible in first week of June:
The South-west monsoon majorly depends on the formation of high pressure over south Madagscar and a belt of low pressure over the rajasthan. The low pressure pulls the moist laden clouds from indian ocean to india, as a part of energy transfer.
Effect of Madden julian oscillation over indian monsoon??
Madden julian Oscillation will normally make a convective effect on ocean, which makes the water warm. So, as the warm water evaporates, forms thick clouds and sometimes gives energy to cyclone.
This year, the MJO will remain ultra strong over arabian sea and likely to trigger a possible cyclonegensis. There is an associated Kelvin Wave, which aids the start up of cyclone over arabian sea.
So the second week and third week of june, there will be a heavy downpour over Kerala and adjoining south coastal karnataka.
Elnino impacts??:
Elnino undergoing the decreasing trend over NINO 3.4 region of pacific, which inturn favours indian Monsoon. The associated Rossiby wave moving towards the australia and turning back into kelvin wave, finally cooling the pool of water near Equador, Peru, Columbia. The Sea surface heat is mainly concentrated in central pacific and adjoining oceania.
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