MONSOON ENTERS SOUTH-WEST BAY OF BENGAL ON ACCOUNT OF LOW IN SOUTH-WEST BAY :
Latest satellite image of Himawari shows a Cloud band over South-west Bay close to Srilanka coast at around 380kms eat-southeast of Trinconamalle. It has good convergence and likely to develop into a well-marked Low in next 48 hours.
Under the influence of LOW over Bay of Bengal, the Monsoonal flow has entered the South-most parts of Bay of Bengal and adjoining Indian ocean. The cross equatorial currents making an entrance and has given an arm to Sumatra. Depending on the movement of Low, The Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone moves up, giving monsoonal flow in Bay of Bengal arm. Monsoon might touch Andaman and Nicobar island around May 14th if the low moves north-wards. We can also see a ridge formed in Bay of Bengal close to Burma.
Cyclone-Tracking-
Chandra Mouli, a member of Weather of South India said that the High pressure area over 200hPa (4-5 kms height from ground) likely to form a ridge and make the system to make land fall from the coast of odisha to Tamilnadu.
Leading Weather Organization ECMWF tells that the system will stay south and cross the South-Tamilnadu coast.
GFS were consistent for Land fall close to Tamilnadu but recently they changed the Place and taking it to Burma.
Ensemble Models like EPS, GEPS, GEFS are consistent over Andhra and Tamilnadu coast.
"If ECMWF forecast over indian ocean Basin comes true then there will be good and much needed rainfall to Tamilnadu and Andhra coasts. At the same time, it helps in the progress of South-West Monsoon particularly in Bay of Bengal Branch.
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