Mausam Srsti: Tropical update-12

"A Tropical Cyclone to Take shape in Bay of Bengal-Likely to Go close To Andhra Coast...But no Landfall expected..As of Now!!"-WOS

Rain bands chased the city of chennai and caused torrential downpour for the past 2 days...Many places like Tirupathi, Tada, Kalahasthi, Poondi, Ponneri got a heavy rainfall of about 12cms. Some places over kerala has been receiving pull effect rains and the system tracking perfectly north, breaking the ridge present over nellore. Now its at 40kt wind speed (70 kmph) and at a central pressure of 993mb moving perfectly north....if it exceeds 42kt speed, its intensification may lead to the track to run parellel to the Andhra coast and make landfall near Bangladesh coast (Cox's Bazaar). In the meanwhile, the rains likely to drench the sea waters...but land areas will not get good rainfall that too in a appreciable manner. Lets see, what if the distance reduces or not.

GFS-ECMWF-Tally-

The above two weather models expecting the system to track parallel to the indian coast and reach Burma thereby. It is also expected to get closer to the coast from Nellore on wards. Heavy rain likely over Andhra Pradesh in next 48 hours.

NORTH-EAST MONSOON SYSTEM VS SUMMER SYSTEM-

Due to the High pressure area over north of india during North-east Monsoon season, the wind field rushes into the Northern part of system and gets added up...Hence the convergence increases and it helps in making up the system strong to the north. The above example proves the same.