Tropical update-Last

SEVERE CYCLONE TO CROSS THE COAST NEAR COX'S BAZAAR

"MONSOON TO TOUCH KERALA COAST BY JUNE-3rd"

CYCLONE ROANU-

Cyclone Roanu is at 120kms away from gopalpur coast and is likely to intensify further. At present the peak wind reached 92.6kmphr and gusts upto 120.5kmphr. Its likely to recurve completely and approach the coast of Bangladesh close to Cox's Bazaar. Places along the coast of Odisha, West Bengal, Dhaka, Burma likely to get rain. At the same time damage is likely to be moderate over Bangladesh coast, Since the system will slightly tend to weaken near the coast. At the same time the cyclone will pull away the moisture over Andhra and Tamilnadu....letting the intense heat over Gujarath and Maharastra to dip south. There will be a drastic increase in heat over Andhra by 23rd. Many places over Andhra, North-interior Karnataka and Telangana will get 44-46 degrees back. 

FORECASTED RAINFALL-

MONSOON ONSET AND PROGRESS??

The much awaiting South-West Monsoon likely to make its progress soon after the landfall of "Cyclone Roanu". Rains will start in Kerala by June 3rd and take a sharp progress thereafter. Cyclones in bay of Bengal make Monsoon onset late, by making the Bay of Bengal Branch Much stronger. According to GFS, the monsoon is likely to touch Kerala shores by june 2nd.

LATEST MONSOON STATUS-

IMD(Indian Meterological Department) issued a heavy rainfall warning to Nicobar islands on the event of Monsoon onsetting. Heavy rain likely to continue over Nicobar islands for next 3 days..then it will shift to Andaman islands. 

Cyclone-Roanu Performance Over Andhra Pradesh-

The cyclonic storm Roanu, which moved close to Andhra Pradesh, Triggered a heavy dumping deluge with highest touching 35cms of rainfall over Sricity and 24 cms over Tada. Advance to say, It triggered over 29cms over Amalapuram and Avanigadda got 17cms. Tirupathi, which is 76kms away from coast, got 16.1cms overall from this system. Vishakapatnam received a staggering rainfall of 22cms.

ROANU DATA-

Note-

Also, it is said that the Deep-Sea areas got a bulk rainfall ranging from 650-800mm's with coastal areas getting less than 35cms. Interior areas got negligible rainfall, with Tirupathi being an exceptional case. Madanapalle, Hyderabad, Bangalore got some Isolated Thundershowers, which resulted in a relief from burning heat. Still there is a deficit in interior areas. Pre-Monsoonal Rainfall will resume after 28th May over interiors, with a good rain showers to Bangalore. These showers are temporally being halted by Cyclone Roanu.

BY

B.SAI PRANEETH

(WOS)

Tropical update-12

"A Tropical Cyclone to Take shape in Bay of Bengal-Likely to Go close To Andhra Coast...But no Landfall expected..As of Now!!"-WOS

Rain bands chased the city of chennai and caused torrential downpour for the past 2 days...Many places like Tirupathi, Tada, Kalahasthi, Poondi, Ponneri got a heavy rainfall of about 12cms. Some places over kerala has been receiving pull effect rains and the system tracking perfectly north, breaking the ridge present over nellore. Now its at 40kt wind speed (70 kmph) and at a central pressure of 993mb moving perfectly north....if it exceeds 42kt speed, its intensification may lead to the track to run parellel to the Andhra coast and make landfall near Bangladesh coast (Cox's Bazaar). In the meanwhile, the rains likely to drench the sea waters...but land areas will not get good rainfall that too in a appreciable manner. Lets see, what if the distance reduces or not.

GFS-ECMWF-Tally-

The above two weather models expecting the system to track parallel to the indian coast and reach Burma thereby. It is also expected to get closer to the coast from Nellore on wards. Heavy rain likely over Andhra Pradesh in next 48 hours.

NORTH-EAST MONSOON SYSTEM VS SUMMER SYSTEM-

Due to the High pressure area over north of india during North-east Monsoon season, the wind field rushes into the Northern part of system and gets added up...Hence the convergence increases and it helps in making up the system strong to the north. The above example proves the same.

Expected Track and Convergence

Latest emergence-

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY-

EXPECTED TRACK BY JTWC (JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER)-

Expected outlook...

"SYSTEM LIKELY TO DEVELOP FURTHER INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN NEXT 2-3 HOURS (AROUND 6PM TODAY)"

BY

B.SAI PRANEETH

WEATHER OF SOUTH INDIA

TIRUPATHI

Tropical update-11

Heavy Rain Likely Over North Tamilnadu and South Coastal Andhra today Overnight-

Expected track-

GFS FORECASTED PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION-

Rain likely over South Andhra pradesh coast and North Tamilnadu in next 48 hours. Places likely Chennai and nellore to get heavy rainfall. Tirupati to get an intense spell tomorrow . The system likely to stall near chennai for some time and move towards Central andhra coast